Democrats Poll Strong, But Independents Remain Undecided

New polling suggests the Democrat candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General all hold significant leads as voter concerns for the economy fade, but half of independents are still undecided.

Published July 31, 2025

A July poll released by Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs showed all three top Democrat candidates carrying 46-49% but half of independents still say they are undecided about the race.

Both parties are struggling to balance local successes with national struggles.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said this week that the party had hit rock bottom. With the rise of Socialist candidates tarnishing their national reputation and support for far-left policies tumbling, polls show 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the party.

But Spanberger has high name recognition, a “purple” persona, and massive financial support from West Coast donors who see this election as an opportunity to stick-it to Donald Trump.

Abigal Spanberger to Silicon Valley and the Bay Area ito raise money n a few weeks, per invites. pic.twitter.com/gbrQOariaJ
— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) February 19, 2025

Polling showed that Winsome Earle-Sears faces the headwinds of Donald Trump who may outpoll Democrats nationally, but in Virginia only enjoys a 40% approval rating with 55% disapproving. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin shows high approval with 49% approving and only 39% disapproving.

While Earle-Sears and Glenn Youngkin’s administrations have seen economic success in Virginia, that success might be hurting the Lt. Governor. (RELATED: Virginia Democrats Sport Fundraising Advantage In Governor’s Race)

🔶FORECAST LAUNCH🔶

The long-awaited @StateNavigate Virginia 2025 forecasts are LIVE.

House of Delegates

🔷Democrats net 7 seats
🔷58 – 42 Democratic Majority

In the race for statewide elections:

GOV | 🔷D +11.4
LG | 🔷D +8.0
AG | 🔷D +8.4https://t.co/yGVhG4U9qd pic.twitter.com/GV1CqueRfx
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) July 28, 2025

In 2024, polling showed the number one issue for 58% of Virginia Voters was the cost of living. As inflation has cooled and job growth has boomed, that number dropped to 28% of voters. No longer concerned about the economy, voters are turning to other issues. Abortion was the second highest concern tying with immigration for 14%. While experts expected Virginia to be hit by federal layoffs, the state’s private sector job market has grown by nearly double the federal jobs lost.

Polls last month from both Roanoke College and Virginia FREE showed Spanberger in the lead, but her lead dropped to only 4% when the poll shifted from “registered” voters to “likely” voters.With so many undecided voters, the race is far from over. One third of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Spanberger and Youngkin overcame a 7-point mid-September gap to defeat Terry McAuliffe in 2021.