With in-person early voting starting in less than a week, a new Roanoke College poll shows Abigail Spanberger’s lead fading fast and other statewide elections within the margin of error.
The backlash against Spanberger and the Democrats over a racist sign targeting Lt. Governor Winsome Earle Sears and national press picking up on Loudoun County School’s controversial policies promoting transgender bathroom access have put the party on the defensive for the first time since this summer.
While California donors and special interest groups gave Spanberger a quick head start both financially and in the polls, the latest results from Roanoke College’s poll shows Spanberger’s early lead now cut in half and the both Lt. Governor and Attorney General’s races within the margin of error.
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The August poll, conducted prior to either the segregationist sign debacle or the release of LPSD’s decision regarding filming in bathrooms showed Lt. Governor Winsome Earle Sears down by 7 points – an 8-point rebound from polls earlier this summer. At this point four years ago, the same poll showed Governor Glenn Youngkin behind by 8 points.
Republicans were also shown in the most recent poll to be trusted more than Democrats on key issues for the electorate including inflation, immigration, taxes, and debt.
“Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.
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“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the election is far from over.”
Polling showed registered voters favored Democrat Ghazala Hasmi over Republican John Reid by three points for Lt. Governor. Democrat Jay Jones was also preferred over Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares by the same margin. More than 14% of voters remain undecided.
The poll has a 4.3% margin of error.
John Fredericks, who chaired President Trump’s 2016 and 2020 Virginia Campaign called the poll “a game-changer.”
“I think she’s got a shot,” said Fredericks on his conservative talk show.
Republicans have been slow to coalesce around the most diverse ticket in statewide history but recent issues seem to have solidified the party.
“How did Sears bring Republicans home? Locker rooms, mostly,” said Democrat outlet Blue Virginia, citing the Lt. Governor’s messaging regarding women’s athletics.
Polling, however, was conducted prior to either Loudoun County’s suspension of boys for not allowing a girl to film inside their locker room or the national outrage over a Spanberger volunteer’s racist sign.
“This is the climate Democrats created — smear, divide, then look away when it turns ugly,” said GOP Lt. Governor nominee John Reid. “That sign is where their politics of resentment leads.”
Since the incident, Earle-Sears fundraising received a major boost from Democrat donor and BET Founder Robert Johnson who contributed $500,000 to Earle-Sears. The donation was a clarion call to other African Americans to support Earle-Sears campaign to be America’s first female black governor.
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“I choose to show the voters of Virginia how Black Brothers stand up to defend and support their Black Sisters,” Johnson said.