Pollsters have released a flurry of results hyping Abigail Spanberger’s significant lead, but the raw data shows the race may be much tighter than the headlines indicate.
In the Virginia Governor’s race, polls have consistently shown Spanberger with a double-digit lead including a Roanoke College poll showing Winsome Earle-Sears behind by an astonishing 17 points. A poll from Virginia FREE, a non-profit nonpartisan organization that provides election information to the business community tells an entirely different story.
According to the FREE poll, Spanberger’s leads Earle-Sears by a mere three points.
The discrepancy comes from other polls asking registered voters while Virginia FREE targets likely voters.
While Spanberger still holds 51% of support compared to Sears 48%, issues overwhelmingly favor Republicans. Earle-Sears also scores nearly one third of support among Black voters.
The economy, cost of living, taxes, and inflation rank as the top issues for likely voters compared to other polls which have placed abortion as a top issue for registered voters.
Right to Work laws that protect individual workers show just how much Republicans dominate on issues. A whopping 89% of likely voters support Right to Work while only 9% oppose them.
Democrat Lt. Governor candidate Ghazala Hashmi has endorsed a complete repeal of Right to Work while Spanberger has voiced a more moderate approach. During her Congressional tenure, Spanberger opposed worker’s rights and has spoken generally about making changes to Virginia’s worker protection laws.
All polls indicate Donald Trump’s popularity is significantly underwater in Virginia. Roanoke College polling shows the President with a 65% disapproval and even Virginia FREE finds Trump with a 56% disapproval.
For decades Republicans have criticized selective polling results that seemed designed to drive public opinion more than reflect it. National polling famously got the 2016 election wrong. The thirteen point difference between “registered” and “likely” voters shows that the race for Virginia’s Governor is still too close to call.
(RELATED: Democrats Poll Strong, But Independents Remain Undecided)