For two decades, Virginia elections have reflected deepening party loyalty. But new polling hints that this year’s pivotal races could revive a fading political tradition: ticket splitting.

In 2021, Republicans narrowly swept all three statewide offices with nearly identical margins, signaling how polarized voting had become. But recent surveys from the Washington Post, VCU, and the Wason Center suggest a potential shift. Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race by between 7 and 12 percentage points, while Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares holds a slight edge over Democratic challenger Jay Jones.

If those trends hold, 2025 could mark Virginia’s first split-ticket outcome since 2005, when Democrat Tim Kaine won the governorship even as Republicans secured the other two statewide offices. That result stemmed in part from regional differences—Kaine’s GOP rival Jerry Kilgore struggled to connect beyond Southwest Virginia, while Republican Bob McDonnell edged out his Democratic opponent after a recount to win attorney general. (RELATED: Virginia Redistricting Fight Heats Up as Incumbent AG Offers Legal Opinion)

Virginia’s history of split tickets runs deep. In 2001, Mark Warner’s centrist campaign strategy helped Democrats regain footing in rural areas, though some in his party, like Donald McEachin, fell short in down-ballot races. Earlier decades saw similar patterns: George Allen’s 1993 upset left Democrats with a single statewide victory, while the 1970s featured mixed outcomes amid shifting political alignments and emerging two-party competition.

Today’s polling suggests voters may again evaluate candidates individually rather than strictly along partisan lines. After 20 years of lockstep results, Virginia’s electorate may be rediscovering its independent streak. (RELATED: Miyares Defends Independence Despite Jay Jones’ False Claims in Virginia Attorney General Debate)